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Tesla with Uncertain Future

Nature
2025-03-28

I sold my entire holding of TSLA at $320, securing a 200% gain. However, it turned out to be an unwise decision, as the stock continued to rise to $470 after I sold. Recently, it has dropped back to $260.

Although the well-known fund manager Cathie Wood remains optimistic about Tesla, I have lost faith in the stock for the following reasons:

1. Competition from China
I have never seen a manufacturing company successfully compete against Chinese firms in the long run. I still hold GoPro stock, but it is practically worthless now due to Chinese competition. For Tesla, its current rival in the EV market is BYD, while its future competitor in robotics is Unitree. I see no chance of Tesla maintaining or gaining market share against them.

2. Loss of Fan Base
People who prefer electric vehicles over traditional gas-powered cars are typically liberals who care about the environment and are willing to sacrifice some convenience for sustainability. However, Elon Musk has alienated many of these supporters due to his recent actions involving DOGE.

3. Uncertain Future Growth
Tesla’s car sales have stagnated, and its other potential growth drivers, such as autonomous taxis and robotics, face significant uncertainties.

Given these factors, I don’t see any reason for Tesla's stock price to return to $320. I might consider buying again if it drops below $200.

About Monkey

The monkey believes that facts and science are the best ways to make decisions and predictions. That's why it created this website, to make different types of machine learning predictions and verify their accuracy. Although many people say that horse racing is unpredictable and random, I want to see what level of accuracy can be achieved by applying machine learning to this data.